Campaign Candor: Fundraising propels Obama
By Jon Busdeker on Jul. 19, 2007
In a series of developments that have surprised many, the past two months have seen Illinois Sen. Barack Obama move into a virtual tie with rival Sen. Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination. Obama’s record fundraising, alongside his continued success in the recruitment of a devoted and involved base, moves him into a deadlock with Clinton despite her continued supremacy in both state and national polls. These two leaders continue to put distance between themselves and the rest of the field and turn it into more of a two-horse race than ever before. The candidates not in this select group all face a differing array of challenges in joining this first tier, and the next few months should tell if any of them will be able to pull it off.
1A) Sen. Barack Obama: Four months into his campaign, the dynamic Obama still generates more excitement than any other candidate on the campaign trail and has yet to make the rookie mistakes that so many people predicted. Obama’s incredible $32 million second-quarter fundraising haul beat both expectations, and more importantly, Sen. Hillary Clinton’s $27 million total, proving to his doubters his proficiency in fundraising. Expect him to keep this up as he engages in a long term battle with co-frontrunner Clinton in the early primary states.
2B) Sen. Hillary Clinton: Clinton’s campaign is still as well-led, well-funded and well-staffed as ever, especially with the increased presence of the former president on the campaign trail. However, Sen. Barack Obama’s rapid rise and apparent staying power has shattered the air of inevitability that Clinton had hoped to establish around her campaign by this point. Clinton will likely focus on beating Obama to the vaunted $100 million mark in fundraising and concentrate her efforts and money toward the big Feb. 5 states in which she is so popular.
3) Sen. John Edwards: Despite his near-constant presence in the early primary states, in the last several months Edwards has fallen somewhat behind the two leaders of the race. Although Edwards raised a respectable $9 million in the second quarter, his poll numbers have slid from the 15 percent range to the 10 percent range. Edwards continues to speak to the liberal base of the party with his populist message, but he will need to expand his appeal in order to remain move back into the forefront of the race. Look for Edwards, under the guidance of campaign guru Joe Trippi, to concentrate his time and resources in Iowa, a state in which he is still popular after placing second there in 2004.
4) Gov. Bill Richardson: The former governor of New Mexico has used his extensive resume and history of executive experience to vault himself into fourth place in the race for the nomination. Richardson’s surprisingly healthy $7 million fundraising total along with his growing poll numbers indicate that Richardson is the dark horse to watch for in this race. In order to capitalize on this opportunity, however, Richardson must eliminate the gaffes and seeming indecision that are permeating his stage and screen presence.
5) Sen. Chris Dodd: This Connecticut senator has yet to find his niche among the Democratic faithful, and is struggling to come upon a message that resonates well with the party’s base. Dodd, the chair of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, raised $3.2 million this quarter, but he will need more than money in order to become a larger presence in the race.
6) Sen. Joe Biden: In what has seemed like a doomed enterprise from the beginning, Biden’s campaign has yet to find its footing among the crowded field of Democratic candidates. Having only raised $2.4 million this quarter and currently polling within the margin of error of 0, Biden may face pressure to withdraw from the race unless he improves significantly in both areas by September.
7) Rep. Dennis Kucinich: Kucinich’s campaign continues to roll on in its own strange way. Thanks to his liberal message and his fan-friendly one-liners in the debates, Kucinich continues to captivate his small segment of supporters without having any real possibility of winning the nomination.
8) Sen. Mike Gravel: This 1970’s Alaskan senator will likely continue his bizarre campaign, but no one really knows why.
I’ll be back with an analysis of the Republican field in a couple of weeks, and continue to appreciate your comments and suggestions.
By Wesley Little. Little can be contacted at , or you can respond to his column on http://www.the-burg.com.
COMMENTS