Campaign Candor 8-16 By Wesley Little
By Jon Busdeker on Aug. 17, 2007
The past few months have seen some significant shake-ups, with the impending candidacy of Fred Thompson and the significant staff departures in the McCain campaign dominating the headlines. Also last month, former Old Dominion Gov. Jim Gilmore left the race and Ron Paul surprised many with great fundraising totals paired with a seemingly tremendous campaign frugality. Here is the breakdown of the current “standings.”
1. Mayor Rudy Giuliani: While Giuliani retains his position at the front of the Republican pack, his lead has been significantly lessened both by Mitt Romney’s burgeoning campaign presence in the early primary states and Fred Thompson’s rising national poll numbers. Giuliani’s strong fundraising and limited spending over the last six months has left him with more than $18 million, which will be useful as he tries to win in the early states and the expensive primaries of the Feb. 5 “Super Duper Tuesday.”
2. Gov. Mitt Romney: Romney has used his immense national money base and his business acumen to out-raise all of his Republican competition over the last two quarters, pulling in an impressive $44 million. Romney has put this money to good use, building up the race’s most impressive Iowa campaign organization and increasing his visibility in the hard-fought state of New Hampshire. Romney’s challenges will be to focus on placing first or second in Iowa and to increase his presence and polling figures in the numerous important Feb. 5 states.
3. Sen. Fred Thompson: The idea of a presidential campaign by this former Tennessee senator and “Law & Order” regular continues to captivate the base of the Republican party, but it seems clear that Thompson’s support is not quite as deep as he might have hoped. After setting a $5 million fundraising goal for July, Thompson reported that he had missed the goal by 30 percent, raising $3.5 million for his now-still-exploratory bid for the presidency. Thompson will likely formally announce his presidential aspirations soon, but many in Washington believe this announcement really should have been made several weeks ago, before the bloom began to fall off the rose.
4. Sen. John McCain: The collapse of McCain’s presidential campaign team following his weak $11 million second quarter left the Arizona senator devoid of his campaign manager and much of the campaign nucleus that has been working for him since the 2000 primaries. McCain’s position as the race’s favorite has been decimated by the controversial issues of immigration and the war as well as strong performances by his fellow candidates. It seems clear that McCain is more comfortable as a long-shot, and it would be hard to count the former POW out of this race.
(Disclaimer, I will be working for a month as an intern on the McCain campaign in Washington.)
5. Gov. Mike Huckabee: While Huckabee’s fundraising has not been sensational ($750,000 in the second quarter), he continues to be the second-tier candidate most capable of finding a way to win the nomination. His debate performances have been strong and impressive, but he needs to figure out how to get positive press and the attention of voters in other ways and begin to move his miniscule poll numbers upward. Huckabee would be well-advised to find and focus on an early primary state to use as a launching pad.
6. Rep. Ron Paul: This libertarian Texas Republican has surprised many with his strong fundraising and the immense enthusiasm his supporters bring to the campaign. Paul’s $2.4 million second quarter fundraising total has illustrated to the media and the political world that his “constitutionalist” philosophy is touching a chord with disenchanted Republicans and independents. Through use of the Internet and a strong and loyal political base, Paul has made himself a force to be dealt with.
7. Sen. Sam Brownback: While Brownback had a successful second quarter of fundraising, his campaign continues to be hampered by the senator’s unimpressive debate presence and seeming lack of political charisma. Brownback needs to illustrate why he is different than the other candidates and begin to step out of the rhetorical shadows in the debates to have a true impact on this race’s future. He will not win the presidency with a traditional campaign.
8. Rep. Tom Tancredo: While this Colorado congressman’s signature issue of immigration has played a large role in this race, Tancredo has yet to. He must fully take advantage of the potency of this issue in the coming months and begin to shape the debate toward his strengths.
9. Rep. Duncan Hunter: Hunter, of San Diego, as the former chair of the House Armed Services Committee, is one of the capital’s foremost voices on national defense. Unfortunately, within a crowd of candidates in which many are claiming the same distinction, Hunter has been largely lost in the shuffle.
10. Tommy Thompson: As the former Wisconsin governor who is credited with the state’s successful welfare reform and the onetime Secretary of Health and Human Services, Thompson’s failure to gain any traction in this race illustrates the true supremacy of the issue of national security in this race. Not many analysts expect Thompson to stay in this race past the Oct. 1 fundraising deadline.
11. Gov. Jim Gilmore: Gilmore has dropped out of the race after his poor second quarter fundraising. Expect Gilmore to be running for statewide office in Virginia again soon.
By Wesley Little. Little can be contacted at , or you can respond to his column on http://www.the-burg.com.
COMMENTS
Wow, Mr. Little’s article concisely offers a balanced assessment of each Republican candidate’s status. After reading numerous articles by Mr. Little I dare say he captivates the reader unlike any other collegiate scholar of his day. My one critique: the opening paragraph of this article does not state that the following candidates are solely Republican. This may lead a less-informed person to assume the following list comprises the entirety of presidential candidates. Fortunately Mr. Little’s prose and writing style squarely overshadows such a minor flaw. Well done, Little. Well done…
Stuart Buergler